Gary North uses the economy of recreation vehicle capital of America, Elkhart, Indiana, to describe how the illusions of easy money and overspending have ambused many Americans.
Link: Retirement Living in Elkhart, Indiana by Gary North
Over the last 18 months, Americans over age 55 have suffered a reversal in their capital that has not fully registered psychologically. They will not be able to afford a comfortable retirement.
This was true 18 months ago, just less obvious. Very few Americans enjoy a combination of private pensions, annuities, and Social Security payments sufficient to fund what Social Security says retirees need: at least 70% of their pre-retirement income in the last year of employment. They are oblivious to this assessment on the Social Security website.
Today, about half of all workers are covered under an employer-sponsored pension, and many people are not saving as much as they should. While Social Security replaces about 40 percent of the average worker’s pre-retirement earnings, most financial advisors say that you will need 70 percent or more of pre-retirement earnings to live comfortably. Even with a pension, you will still need to save. If you will not have a private pension, you will need to save more – and start saving sooner.Yet throughout Greenspan’s bubble economy, the savings rate of American households fell, going negative in 2005. The boom fooled Americans who owned stocks that they were getting richer. They weren’t. They were merely benefitting from the greater fool theory of investing. That theory has brought down the real estate bubble. There will be further declines. It has ended the stock market mania. And it has just about shut down Elkhart, Indiana.
Americans have not yet recognized what has been done to them by the Federal Reserve System and the highly leveraged banks and hedge funds that thought the good ship Effortless Wealth had come into port. The hot-shots did not understand Ludwig von Mises’ theory of the business cycle as the product of central bank monetary inflation. They never saw it coming.
Now the investors who believe the same dream, but without multimillion dollar severance deals, have seen their dreams called into question.
They have not yet dumped their stocks. They have just stopped buying as many. The fall of 55% by the Dow and the S&P 500 was not accompanied by a huge sell-off. The decline has been one of dribbling away. The dreams of would-be retirees have not yet been smashed. They have merely dribbled away. The crash has not yet come. It will.
STAGES OF DECEPTION
First, there is a dream: easy prosperity. This dream is funded by fiat money. Next, there is a boom: easy prosperity. This boom is funded by fiat money. Next, there is reality: the stabilization of fiat money. Next, there is recession: the end of the dream. [click to continue…]
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